To help you better understand what Larry Acker does and what 3F Forecasts is all about, we have compiled a list of the top 5 most frequently asked questions.
Question: What exactly do you do?
Answer: I take all weather data that I can get my hands on and analyze it using modern computers. Through specially designed software, we can actually have the computer “look” for patterns in numbers that repeat themselves over and over. Temperature, rainfall, wind, etc. data is the easiest to use, but standardized data collection has only been around for 100-150 years and a lot of stations won’t go back nearly that far.
Historically, other somewhat more general methods can help such as tree rings, pollen counts and types in bogs, other written historical records around the world, analyzing historical material. This is very time consuming, but is fascinating to researchers such as myself.
Question: Why do you use cycles?
Answer: Cycles are based on natural rhythms and they really change very little. The seasons are based on cycles as well as the birth, growth, reproduction, old age and death of all organisms. There are cycles within cycles. Weather cycles also repeat themselves at regular intervals, but each weather cycle has its own length or period.
There are many thousands of weather cycles – each with their own length – and some are stronger than others, so if strong ones are present at any particular time, the weaker ones present may be partially “covered up” or masked completely and may not show up until the next time it peaks in the future.
Question: How long do cycles – especially weather – last?
Answer:Theoretically they can last forever, but over a long period of time, several thousands of years, they can “shift” or change. If all of the cycles were known at this time for the weather and climate forecasters, we could theoretically forecast weather years in advance and be correct.
Also, we could take the cycles and figure backwards into history and see what the weather was like at some time in the past. This is a fascinating subject called historical climatology, and some currently unanswered questions may actually be answered using such analysis. This is one of our specialties.
Question: What is acid rain and why is it important to study it?
Answer:Acid rain is rain that is more acidic than average due to the absorption of certain gasses by water that combine to make a dilute acid. Pure water is neutral with a pH of 7, but acid rain is rainfall with a pH below 7 or in the acid pH range. Acid rain is only a problem in humid areas or climates because that is where the water vapor is in the air with the vapor falling out as rain.
Sulfur Dioxide makes strong acid rain – because it easily combines with water to make dilute sulfuric acid. This strong acid is hard on many buildings and ecology regions such as lakes and forests. There are many other pollutants – both natural and manmade- that can cause disruptions – some serious to the environment. This is a wide ranging technical problem in many areas of the world.
Question: Is the Earth actually warming up (also called Global Warming)?
Answer:This is a complex question. If one analyzes my data, we have actually been cooling down since 1974. Cycles confirm this as do satellite measurements. But if one is now including ocean temperatures since 1970, it appears that the earth is getting warmer. But we didn’t have nearly as much data over most of the Earth before 1970, so this is similar to comparing apples and oranges. I have compared (in a limited study) only the stations “on line” for both 1930 and 1990 and find (so far) no difference that is statistically significant.
In actuality, in my area the 1930’s were hotter than the 1990’s. It is more likely that the tropics are getting hotter and the rest of the globe is slowly getting colder – which could be linked to deforestation and burning of the jungle and this releases huge amounts of carbon dioxide.
Cycles show a worldwide cooling trend has already started and will become obvious by 2008-2009. Unfortunately, politics has now clouded up the issue. We have been a lot warmer than we currently are in the 1200’s A.D. We will have much more on these cold weather cycles in the relatively near future.